CCMC CME Scoreboard
Prediction for CME (2026-07-09T07:53:00-CME-001)
CME Observed Time: 2026-07-09T07:53ZDONKI Link: https://kauai.ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov/DONKI/view/CME/47469/-1
CME Note: [Preliminary] Potential weak CME arrival preceded by current sheet crossing. Characterized by an increase in B_total from 6nT to 8nT, a slight increase in speed, and a decrease in temperature. Rotation in magnetic field components is also observed. Possibly two overlapping CMEs visible to the E in STEREO A COR2 imagery and to the S/SW in GOES CCOR-1 imagery starting at 2026-07-09T07:53Z and 2026-07-09T08:23Z based on STEREO A COR2 imagery. The source of this CME(s) is an eruption from the area of Active Region 14485 (S10W34) starting around 2026-07-09T06:56Z to the SW in GOES SUVI 195 with additional eruption signatures to the NW of AR 14485 (S10W34) in GOES SUVI 195 starting around 2026-07-09T07:08Z. There is a following eruption starting around 2026-07-09T07:48Z with associated brightening and dimming to the N/NW of the Active Region spanning roughly from W25 to W10 and S00 to S12. An EUV wave is visible in GOES SUVI 284 following the main eruption with post-eruptive arcades starting around 2026-07-09T08:53Z as seen in GOES SUVI 195 and 284. These eruptions are also visible in STEREO A EUV 195 and 304 as well as in SDO/AIA wavelengths following an eclipse.
CME Shock Arrival Time: 2026-07-12T02:30Z
Observed Geomagnetic Storm Parameters due to CME:
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Predicted Arrival Time: 2026-07-11T18:32Z (-3.5h, +4.6h)
Confidence that the CME will arrive: 100.0%
Predicted geomagnetic storm max Kp range due to CME: 5.0 - 7.0
Prediction Method: Ensemble WSA-ENLIL + Cone (NASA M2M)
Prediction Method Note:
Ensemble modeling estimates the spread/uncertainty in CME arrival time predictions using the WSA-ENLIL+Cone model due to uncertainties in CME input parameters. This is achieved by measuring N CME input parameters, then performing an ensemble of N runs of WSA-ENLIL cone model. This gives an ensemble of N CME arrival times and impact estimates. NASA GSFC SWRC ENLIL settings: ENLIL version: 2.7 Resolution: low2 (256x30x90) Ambient settings: a3b1f WSA version: 2.2 (Enlil 2.7 w/res:low2 ambient:a3b1f, WSA2.2) .... Based on analysis by the Moon to Mars Space Weather Analysis Office and heliospheric ensemble modeling carried out at the Community Coordinated Modeling Center, it is estimated that the CME may impact STEREO A. For 42 ensemble members (see notes section), simulations indicate that the leading edge of the CME will reach: - STEREO A between about 2026-07-12T08:20Z and 2026-07-12T10:58Z (average arrival 2026-07-12T09:57Z) for 7% of simulations. Additionally the CME is estimated to reach NASA missions near Earth between about 2026-07-11T15:02Z and 2026-07-11T23:04Z (average arrival 2026-07-11T18:32Z) for 100% of simulations. The ensemble-based forecast indicates that there is a 91% chance for the maximum Kp index to be in the 5-7 range (minor to strong). Links to the ensemble details of the modeled event: https://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/ENSEMBLE/2026-07-09_ncmes1_sims42_M2M-SWAO091/20260709_120900_ncmes1_sims42_M2M-SWAO091_anim_tim-den.gif https://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/ENSEMBLE/2026-07-09_ncmes1_sims42_M2M-SWAO091/20260709_120900_ncmes1_sims42_M2M-SWAO091_arrival_Earth.gif https://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/ENSEMBLE/2026-07-09_ncmes1_sims42_M2M-SWAO091/20260709_120900_ncmes1_sims42_M2M-SWAO091_Earth_stack.gif ## Notes: Ensemble CME modeling at M2M is performed by building sets of initial CME parameters and carrying out separate simulations for each set. This approach allows a mapping of initial CME parameter uncertainties into a statistical characterization of CME arrival times and impact at locations of interest. Description of links: For each location, the first link shows the WSA-ENLIL+Cone model animation for the median CME input parameters, the second link shows the probabilistic distribution of predicted arrival times histogram, and the third link shows a stack plot of the WSA-ENLIL+Cone modeled magnetic field, velocity, density, and temperature for all ensemble members. For missions near Earth, a histogram of the probabilistic Kp forecast is also provided. For the full details of the modeled event, please go here: https://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/ENSEMBLE/2026-07-09_ncmes1_sims42_M2M-SWAO091/Detailed_results_20260709_120900_ncmes1_sims42_M2M-SWAO091.txt ###Lead Time: 56.47 hour(s)
Difference: 7.97 hour(s)
Prediction submitted by Chris Stubenrauch (M2M SWAO) on 2026-07-09T18:02Z
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